Beware the end of the decade in Iran. In 1979 it was the Shah who succumbed to the protests and was driven from power. In 1989 it was Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of the Islamic revolution, who died after a long illness. In 2009 his successor is fighting to save the regime from its gravest challenge since Saddam Hussein’s tanks crossed the frontier in 1980.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, spent years in the Shah’s prisons, had his right arm paralysed by a bomb and has led Iran through many crises over the past two decades. But tomorrow, when he mounts the steps to the small stage at Tehran University to deliver the sermon at weekly prayers, he faces the toughest test of his almost 70 years.
If it was the “Great Satan”, as America is known, or even the “Little Satan”, as Britain is named, who were behind the challenge, then the regime would know how to protect itself. The Revolutionary Guards would be deployed along the borders, the Basij, a volunteer force, would patrol the streets. Instead, the challenge comes from within and from people that the Supreme Leader barely has contact with, using unfamiliar weapons — tweets, blogs, satellite television and text messages — that undermine him in ways he cannot imagine.
Two thirds of Iranians are under 30, meaning that they have no direct experience of the Revolution and a only passing knowledge of the Iran-Iraq war, which did more than anything to shape the modern country. What they have experienced is a life of missed opportunities caused by an aging clerical leadership, massive corruption and a regime that is increasingly dictatorial.
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Updates:
The Revolutionary Guard isn’t made up of those over the age of 40… Unless they’re all fanatics (who knows?), the imams might not have the abject control over them that they suspect…
The 70% under 30 statistic is a ticking time bomb for the Mullahs. The mood of the youth is that they want democracy and freedom. Iran could very well sustain a military coup as you hint if the Mullahs don’t step out of their comfort zone and start liberalizing their laws a bit.
One good thing about this development is the Iranian government will be preoccupied with their internal woes. Perhaps this could result in a reprieve for the governments of Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan to put their houses in order, free of Iranian interference?
Could be. I’m sure the 51st state doesn’t mind their chief rival in a state of chaos either. The Saudis are probably happy as well. All things considered, I bet these counter revolutionaries are or will be receiving a lot of monetary support + training for external sources.