We’re not all that surprised by the results of the latest CanWest News Service and Global National poll, conducted last week by Ipsos Reid, which shows the federal Tories with an 11-point lead on the Liberals. The government has handled the economy about as well as any in the industrialized world, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper has acquitted himself admirably at international summits and in the Arctic this summer. By comparison, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and his party have looked weak and indecisive on the few occasion on which they haven’t been altogether invisible.
We expect that when Parliament resumes in the middle of September, and the opposition parties again have a daily opportunity to gang up on the Tories on television, the poll numbers will tighten again. Still, there is a positive side-effect to having the Tories at 39% support (43% in Ontario), while the Liberals are at just 28% — a 12-point swing in just two months — even if it’s a temporary blip: The results have killed the Liberals’ ardour for a fall election.
The country doesn’t need a fourth election in five years. As fractious as our current minority Parliament is, there is no compelling issue on which to fight an election. If the best the Liberals can come up with is the “need” to standardize Employment Insurance qualification rules across the country, then they would be well-advised to cool their heels until a real issue comes along.
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I’m not sure I agree with their conclusion that an election would result in a similar parliament. After all, in each successive election since he became leader of the Conservative Party, PMSH has increased the number of seats and percentage of popular vote. That being said, I’m in no rush to spend $300M so let’s wait until there’s a better reason than a poll.