OTTAWA – What if there had been no public opinion polls published during last spring’s federal election campaign?
Would the NDP’s orange wave have swept across the country if no one realized there was a wave to catch? Would support for the Liberals have collapsed so utterly? Would the Conservatives have captured their long-sought majority?
Such questions are not simply idle speculation.
Given the controversy swirling around the accuracy and methodological adequacy of polls, the professionalism of pollsters and the polling literacy of journalists who slavishly report them, questions about the influence of polls on election results are arguably key to the health of Canada’s democracy.
The issue arose at a conference last week, where eight pollsters from the country’s most prominent public opinion research firms discussed the lessons they’ve gleaned from last May’s election.
“I do think this was an interesting election in that it’s hard to deny that polls themselves had a major impact on the outcome of the election,” said Derek Leebosh of Environics.
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