The trend in crude oil prices through the first half of this year has hewed very closely to the pattern set in 2011 thanks to many parallels in the global economy.
But anybody hoping for oil prices to experience the same bounce back to US$100 a barrel levels seen last year will be left disappointed, new research from TD Economics suggests.
Dina Ignjatovic, economist with TD Economics, said oil price movements have been tracking those of a year ago almost dollar-for-dollar, peaking at US$110 through new optimism in the first quarter before plummeting to US$80 a barrel at mid-year thanks to assorted issues including the ongoing eurozone credit crisis, the U.S. economy, and global growth.
In the case of 2011, prices ended up rallying back to US$100 a barrel by the end of the year, but the prospect of this happening again for the second year in a row is unlikely, she said.
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