So we have a new term: BRIXIT.
Japan’s biggest bank Nomura has issued an 11-page study evaluating the likelihood that the UK will leave the European Union entirely or partly.
Events could accelerate as soon as this autumn if eurozone woes force the Government to commit to a firm date for a BRIXIT referendum.
“The effect a looser relationship with the EU would have on the UK economy in general and on the financial services sector in the UK in particular is not clear at this time, even though British eurosceptics argue that being freed from EU regulation would be a booster. However, the prospect is, in our view, bound to raise concerns – indeed, is doing so already in the City.”
The core point is that the eurozone may have to take drastic steps in integration (fiscal union, etc) to save the euro, making it nigh impossible for a fully sovereign state to remain part of the Project.
In other words, it is not so much Britain leaving the EU as the EU leaving the treaty-based club of sovereign states it was supposed to be.
The report is part of the bank’s “Issues which keep me awake at night” series.
It does not take sides.
[More]
See Also:
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Euro Crisis Morphs into Generational Conflict
Will the ‘Jesus Christ of Politics’ Rise Again?
Afternoon Updates:
12:02 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — Martin Wheatley’s review suggests scrapping Libor
12:03 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — China exports slump in July as global demand slows
12:04 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — Hard landing for China as factory prices fall and deflation looms
12:05 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — US won’t prosecute Goldman Sachs in fraud probe
12:06 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — Mark Carney rules himself out of Bank of England governor race
12:07 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — Manchester votes overwhelmingly for an In/Out referendum
12:09 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — French court rules no constitutional change for EU pact
12:10 pm EDT, August 10th, 2012 — Crisis Drives More Southern Europeans to Germany
